'Peak oil' - Are we prepared for it?
By Don G. Briggs, President – LOGA (Louisiana Oil & Gas Association)

The high price of a barrel of crude oil is a big problem; however, the factor that magnifies the problem is the lack of awareness of the general public of what they are about to be faced with, and that is "peak oil."

What is "peak oil"? Any finite resource, (oil), will have a beginning, middle, and an end of production, and at some point it will reach a level of maximum output and begin its decline; thus the "peak."

In 1956 M. King Hubbert, a geologist for Shell Oil, predicted the peaking of U.S. oil production would occur in the late 1960s. Much to the dismay of his critics, and there were many, U.S. oil production grew steadily until 1970 and has declined thereafter.

Hubbert was correct and proved that oil production from its beginning to end would follow a bell shaped curve, which today is called "Hubberts' Peak."

The point at which global crude production will "peak" is a highly debated question. Are we at "peak oil" today, or will it be 20 years from now?

Chris Skrebowski, a researcher for the Energy Institute in Britain, told the delegates of the Sub-Saharan Oil, Gas and Petrochemical Conference in Cape Town this past Tuesday that the oil supply will peak in 2011 or 2012 at around 93 million barrels a day.

Robert Hirsch, a senior energy analyst at Management Information Services, Inc., a Washington, D.C., research and consulting firm, is concerned that the U.S. and most of the world has not prepared seriously for a "peak" in world oil output. "If we wait until the problem hits us, we are in for very serious economic problems worldwide for at least 20 years," he says. "There is no good news. Nobody is really doing anything."

The GAO (Government Accountability Office) in a March 2007 report said, "While the consequences of a peak would be felt globally, the United States, as the largest consumer of oil and one of the nations most heavily dependent on oil for transportation, may be particularly vulnerable."

That's a good conclusion, because we use 95 percent of our 21 million barrels per day for transportation and we import now 75 percent of that. To say our country is vulnerable is gross understatement. Are we prepared for peak oil?

Don Briggs is president of the Louisiana Oil and Gas Association. His column appears in The Advertiser twice a month.